Thad Cochran's retirement throws Mississippi midterm elections, politics into chaos

Sen. Thad Cochran’s retirement does not come as a big surprise, but it is nonetheless sending shock waves across the Mississippi political landscape.

The only thing that is is absolutely certain from the fallout is that Gov. Phil Bryant will call a special election for the remainder of Cochran’s term, and the election will be held on Nov. 6, per state statute that requires it to be on the same date as the already scheduled general election.

Past that, a number of critical questions remain — not the least of which are, “Whom will Bryant appoint as interim senator?” and, “Will Chris McDaniel drop his challenge against Sen. Roger Wicker to run for Cochran’s open seat?”

Here’s what you need to know.

Whom will Bryant appoint?

This is the biggest question as it will likely determine whether McDaniel, the Republican state senator from Ellisville, will switch races.

Most politicos seem convinced of the top two names: Republicans Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves and Secretary of State Delbert Hosemann. Conventional wisdom is they have the best chance of winning a special election against McDaniel if he were to switch races.

So far, Reeves has been cool to the idea, though he has reportedly not declined overtures outright when people have tested his interest.

The main drawback to Hosemann is his age. He will turn 71 on June 30, but the avid runner likes to joke that he’s “a very young 70.”

Agriculture and Commerce Secretary Cindy Hyde-Smith has gotten a lot of attention as of late, too. Hyde-Smith, who spent 12 years in the state Senate before running statewide, would be the first woman U.S. senator from Mississippi. She would be an attractive candidate given her connections throughout the state, particularly from the southern parts of Mississippi where McDaniel has his strongest base of supporters.

House Speaker Phillip Gunn is another possible candidate, though many fear his lack of statewide name recognition and his support for changing the state flag would make him a rather weak opponent against McDaniel.

Finally, state Sen. Michael Watson, R-Pascagoula, is a possibility. Watson supported McDaniel in 2014 and is still a McDaniel ally. However, Watson is believed to be more temperate and pragmatic than McDaniel. If Watson was to get the appointment, it is unlikely McDaniel would challenge him.

U.S. Rep. Gregg Harper, who is retiring at the end of this year, was once the presumed appointee; however, multiple sources say he has no interest in the appointment and will not run for another federal office.

Whatever Bryant decides, those closest to him say he will not appoint McDaniel.

As for Bryant taking the appointment for himself — something President Donald Trump and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell have urged him to do — it appears the governor remains resolute in his decision to stay in Mississippi.

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What’s the timeline?

Mississippi law is somewhat unclear on parts of the timeline as to what will happen next.

What is clear is that Bryant will have 10 days from April 1, when Cochran officially retires, to call a special election. Since there is a general election for the U.S. Senate already scheduled for this year, the special election will take place then.

Normally a qualifying deadline for a special election is 45 days from the call of the election. However, there is some question as to whether the governor can set the qualifying deadline for U.S. Senate races.

There’s also ambiguity as to when — or even actually if — the governor has to appoint an interim senator. State statute says the governor “may appoint a Senator to fill the vacancy temporarily,” which leaves it to the discretion of the governor unless the “Senate be in session at the time the vacancy occurs.” In that case, the governor would have 10 days from April 1 to make the appointment.

As it would happen, the U.S. Senate will be on one of its “State Work Periods.” The argument could be made that the governor would not have to appoint a replacement if he so chooses.

Theoretically, there could be a scenario in which Bryant could delay appointing an interim senator and set the qualifying deadline for the special election until after the June 5 primary. While unlikely, it would definitely put McDaniel in a bind as to his decision.

Will McDaniel switch races?

Only the state senator knows this, and he is likely unsure at this point. If he believes he would have an easier time defeating whomever Bryant appoints to the seat rather than Wicker, he will switch. Otherwise, he will stay where he is.

If you’re looking to handicap the possible appointees as to the likelihood of them defeating McDaniel, the best bet — as close to a sure thing as you can get — would be Bryant. Hosemann and Reeves would have the initial advantage, too.

Of the other names mentioned — and just about any other possible appointee — McDaniel would be the favored candidate out of the gate.

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What about the Democrats?

This is certain: The Democrats’ best bet is a two-man showdown with McDaniel.

State Rep. David Baria of Bay St. Louis indicated he would not switch races, but he was far from definitive in his written statement.

“As a Mississippian, I appreciate all of the years of service that Sen. Cochran has provided to our state. I have announced that I am running for the Senate seat currently held by Roger Wicker and have been humbled by the outpouring of support that I have received. I am focused on winning the race that I have entered,” Baria said.

Baria has strong connections throughout the state and could even pull some Republican votes from the coast against McDaniel, but he would face an uphill battle against Wicker.

Baria’s main competition in the Democratic primary is businessman Howard Sherman of Meridian (via Los Angeles). He is wealthy, allowing him the ability to self-fund much of his campaign if he chooses. Sherman, who could not be reached for comment, has picked up support from some who were instrumental in electing Sen. Doug Jones, D-Alabama. It also doesn’t hurt that Sherman is married to beloved Mississippi actress Sela Ward.

Former Secretary of Agriculture Mike Espy said Monday he will run for Cochran’s open seat.

"I just learned of the pending resignation of Sen. Cochran — a person I admire and respect, and who has done so much for Mississippi over his tenure," Espy said in a statement. "However, now that he has announced his pending resignation I would like to declare my strong intention to run for the United States Senate."

Espy, who served as a Democrat in Congress from 1987 to 1993, has been largely out of the political spotlight since 1994 when he resigned from the Clinton administration. He made headlines in 2007 when he crossed party lines to endorse Republican Gov. Haley Barbour for re-election.

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How does the special election work?

Special elections in Mississippi are non-partisan, which means everyone runs in the same election. If no one receives a majority of the vote, a runoff will be held three weeks later.

The politics of this race could get hairy. If McDaniel switches, then he’s playing for the runoff. The more Democrats in the field, the more likely McDaniel is to make a runoff against whomever Bryant appoints. If the field remains narrow, particularly if Espy can unite Democratic voters behind him, then McDaniel will have a harder time making the runoff.

Where does this leave Wicker?

Of everyone, Wicker is both the most and least in control of his own destiny. He is running for re-election, and that’s not changing. At the same time, the race becomes infinitely easier if McDaniel drops out.

While all public polling has shown Wicker with a comfortable lead, the race has just begun. McDaniel has serious money behind him, and he’s hiring a much more professional staff than four years ago.

Too, Wicker’s support for changing the state flag to remove the Confederate emblem will be a real issue. McDaniel mentions this at just about every rally, and polling shows the issue still sways a considerable percentage of Republican voters.

Editor's note: This story has been updated to add Cindy Hyde-Smith as a possible candidate.