McDaniel increases lead over Cochran in latest poll

Chism Strategies has another poll that shows Chris McDaniel increasing his lead to 8 points over incumbent U.S. Sen. Thad Cochran ahead of Tuesday's GOP primary runoff.

The latest poll was taken Friday night and showed McDaniel leading Cochran 52 to 44 percent with 4 percent undecided. The automated survey polled 697 voters and has a margin of error of 3.8 percent.

Chism is a Democratic pollster based in Mississippi. While he's worked for Democatic nominee Travis Childers in the past, Chism is not working for any congressional candidate at the time. His polling was the closest of any poll in predicting the primary results. Chism's polls showed the race tightening early last week, but McDaniel has slowly increased his margin.

The big question, however, is whether or not Cochran's attempt to expand the electorate in predominantly black voting precincts will be successful enough to overcome McDaniel's lead among likely Republican voters.

This is how Brad Chism breaks it down:

No Polling Can Measure the Implications of Two Unprecedented Actions in Mississippi Politics

1. Surrogates for the 42 year GOP incumbent are groveling for Democrat and union votes in the runoff after his campaign spent millions in the Primary bashing President Obama and his policies.

- Can Cochran's team execute their elaborate, expensive GOTV plan?

- Will this pivot to a more centrist message erode his conservative base?

2. Republican office holders have gotten way out ahead of their constituents

- Are the establishment Republicans able to bring the rank and file to Cochran?

- Will there be a backlash from this top down directive?